During this razor-close US presidential campaign between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, political satire has morphed into misinformation across social media sites
Donald Trump is on the cusp of taking Nevada from Kamala Harris on Polymarket. AFP

KEY POINTS

  • Since retaking Pennsylvania from Harris earlier this month, Trump's numbers have been surging
  • Nevada is a key swing state that some analysts believe may even determine the presidential election's outcome
  • Harris and Trump have had different approaches in their campaigns targeted at crypto voters

Former President Donald Trump is on a roll on Polymarket, logging his highest lead over Vice President Kamala Harris since the latter became the Democratic presidential nominee.

Data from the decentralized market prediction platform revealed that as of early Wednesday, the Republican presidential candidate is ahead of his Democratic foe by around 17 percentage points (58.3% to 41.4%), marking his highest lead yet in months.

Polymarket presidential Election 2024 as of Oct 16 2024
Harris is down by 2.7%, with Trump commanding an almost 17% lead as of early Wednesday. Polymarket

A Significant Shift from 2 Weeks Back

Earlier this month, Trump took the lead from Harris but the figures were close at 50.8% to 48.4%. Also at the time, he reclaimed key battleground state Pennsylvania from the vice president, commanding a significant 10-point lead.

The transition came after Trump returned to Butler, Pennsylvania. He was joined by tech billionaire Elon Musk, who urged the crowd to vote for Trump, as it has become a "must-win" situation for the GOP frontrunner.

Will Harris Give Up Nevada?

Aside from the said development, Harris is also on the cusp of yielding swing state Nevada to the GOP frontrunner as Trump has caught up to tie Kamala in the said state.

Polymarket swing states early Oct 16 2024
Trump is close to taking all six swing states being tracked by Polymarket. Polymarket

Nevada is a largely Democratic-leaning state, delivering the wins for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and outgoing President Joe Biden over the past three presidential elections.

However, history had a different tale to tell about how Nevada residents voted from the late 1960s through the early 2000s, delivering for Republicans and making Bill Clinton one of the few exceptions.

For some analysts, Nevada may turn out to be the key battleground state to determine the November presidential election's result. The state has a significant number of non-partisan voters, at around 34%, and the balance among Nevada voters' likely picks have been unpredictable in recent years.

It remains to be seen whether Polymarket data will eventually match with the results of the November elections.

Differences in Crypto Campaign Approach

The latest data from Polymarket comes amid contrasting approaches by Harris and Trump in terms of how the candidates are wooing crypto voters.

Harris, who has largely snubbed the burgeoning industry throughout her campaign, seemed to change her tone in recent days. On Monday, she released her opportunity agenda for Black Americans, vowing support for Black males who hold crypto.

However, her promises drew criticism, with many crypto users questioning why she associated digital assets with race.

On the contrary, Trump has been very vocal of his supposed support for the crypto sector since earlier this year. He attended the Bitcoin 2024 conference and has increasingly been including crypto and BTC in political talks.

However, he is also hounded with questions regarding his real motives, especially since he called Bitcoin a "scam" in the past and is apparently supportive of his sons' DeFi project (World Liberty Financial) more than other emerging crypto projects.

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