Donald Trump's campaign team are hoping to recapture the poll lead he enjoyed before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race, but he remains neck-and-neck with Kamala Harris
Donald Trump yielded Pennsylvania to Kamala Harris last month, but reclaimed it over the weekend and on Wednesday took two more states from the vice president on Polymarket. AFP

KEY POINTS

  • Trump is now leading Harris by two percentage points in Michigan and Wisconsin
  • The ex-president is also ahead in Georgia, Arizona, and top swing state Pennsylvania
  • The flip appears to have been triggered by Trump's rally in Butler Saturday

Donald Trump has grabbed Michigan and Wisconsin from Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket – he is now ahead of his Democratic foe in five of only six swing states being tracked by the decentralized prediction platform.

Just days ago, the Democratic presidential nominee was still leading in Michigan and Wisconsin, but as of late Wednesday, the GOP frontrunner is now ahead on both battleground states by two percentage points.

Data from Polymarket shows that Harris is now left with Nevada to defend, at least for cryptocurrency bettors who use the platform to predict future events.

Trump, on the other hand, is ahead of Kamala in Arizona and Georgia on very wide margins. He is leading Pennsylvania by 10 percentage points.

Polymarket swing states late Oct 9 2024
VP Kamala Harris is no longer ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin, and is now ahead of Donald Trump only in Nevada. Polymarket data as of late Oct. 9, 2024 Polymarket

Why are Swing States Crucial in the Elections?

Unlike other regular states across the country, swing states are very unpredictable, especially in recent years. Pennsylvania is called the king of swing states, especially in this year's elections, but the other key states are also critical for both the Republican and Democratic parties.

Voters in battleground states can change their minds depending on various factors, which is why candidates spend a lot of time, money, and effort in getting "purple" state voters on their side.

For instance, Trump won Michigan in 2016, shocking Democrats in a state that refused to hand over the victory to Republicans in decades. However, outgoing President Joe Biden reclaimed the state in 2020, but only by a small margin.

Wisconsin has a somehow similar voter atmosphere. The state delivered the victory to ex-president Trump by less than 1 percentage point in 2016. Voters in the state did the same for Biden in 2020, also by less than 1 percentage point.

The "close call" moments during elections in swing states have made them very critical for the two parties, and in 2024, the stakes have only gone a notch higher in less than a month into the election.

In Polymarket's event contract on who will win the presidency on Nov. 5, Trump is also ahead of Harris at 53.6% to 45.8% as of late Wednesday.

What Triggered the Flip?

The exact reason for why numbers have flipped in favor of Trump can be difficult to pinpoint, but it can be worth noting that the business magnate reclaimed Pennsylvania from Kamala over the weekend following his Butler rally, where he survived a would-be assassination in July.

Crypto users on Polymarket appear to have been moved by the events that took place in the rally as they drove the numbers to a double-digit lead for Trump in the very critical Keystone State.

Elon Musk appeared at the event, declaring himself as "Dark MAGA," warning voters that it is a "must-win situation" for the Republican presidential candidate, and reminding GOP supporters that every vote counts.

Meanwhile, the latest polls show that Trump has narrowed the gap and is once again closing in on Kamala, with three of four polls ending Monday giving only a 1 percentage point lead for the vice president.

Read more