UK Health Experts Warn A Winter Coronavirus Wave Could Lead To Nearly 120,000 More Deaths

A second wave of coronavirus infections this winter could lead to nearly 120,000 additional deaths, a “reasonable” model developed by the Academy of Medical Sciences indicated Tuesday.

As of Tuesday, the U.K. had more than 290,000 confirmed cases and 44,851 deaths from COVID-19.

“This report considers our reasonable worst-case scenario for winter 2020-21 and identifies actions that should help to mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the expected seasonal surge in healthcare demand,” the report said. “We believe the actions set out in this report will enable the health and social care system to better cope in the face of new winter pressures resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, and thereby help to protect the health of the nation and save as many lives as possible.”

The report warned the pandemic would increase strain on the National Health Service, which typically peaks during the winter due to a seasonal increases in flu cases and other respiratory illnesses linked to cold weather. A second wave of coronavirus cases could increase the backlog of cases for routine care produced by the initial coronavirus outbreak from 4.2 million to 10 million by the end of 2020.

“With relatively low numbers of COVID-19 cases at the moment, this is a critical window of opportunity to help us prepare for the worst that winter can throw at us,” Professor Stephen Holgate, a respiratory specialist at the University Hospital Southampton NHS Trust, said in the report.

Holgate stressed the report is about what might happen, not what will happen, but steps still should be taken to mitigate the impact of a second possible wave of the pandemic.

Recommended actions included:

• Reinforcing the “test-and-trace program” so it can distinguish between coronavirus and other seasonal illnesses
• Increased flu vaccinations
• Resupplying hospitals and care centers with fresh protective personal equipment
• Creating “coronavirus-free” zones within hospitals and care centers to limit exposure

“We remain vigilant and the government will ensure the necessary resources are in place to avoid a second peak that would overwhelm our NHS,” the U.K. government said in a press release following the report’s release.