U.S. Caregiving Workforce Poised To Suffer Mightily Under Proposed Immigration Crackdown

Despite what some MAGA hardliners claim, most experts agree that mass deportations would heavily impact the U.S. economy. From their impact in the construction industry to their role in addressing physician shortages, immigrants, documented or not, play a pivotal role in the country's workforce.

In fact, during the past election season, a survey by Pew Research Center revealed that 3 in 4 voters said undocumented immigrants fill jobs that citizens are unwilling to take, while 61% believe the same about legal immigrants.

One of those areas is the subject of a new piece by Axios released on Wednesday, which delves into the country's home health and long-term care sectors, which rely heavily on immigrant labor and is poised to face significant disruptions under Trump's proposed immigration policies.

"If you were to tighten up immigration or begin deporting individuals, it's going to lower the available workforce, and this is only going to add to an already challenging labor situation," said David Grabowski, a Harvard Medical School professor who's chronicled how foreign-born workers filled key nursing home roles early in the pandemic.

The American Immigration Council estimates that more than one-third of home health aides in the U.S. are immigrants, with figures reaching 40% or higher in states like California, New York, and New Jersey. Undocumented workers also play a role, constituting approximately 6.9% of home health aides and 4.4% of personal care aides.

Furthermore, according PHI, a research group focused on care worker, the long-term care sector is projected to need 9.3 million direct care workers to meet growing demand and replace those exiting the field between 2021 and 2031.

"Aggressive immigration enforcement could cause home care workers who might have otherwise legally entered the U.S. to move to countries with friendlier policies," says the report from Axios. "Canada, for instance, announced a permanent residence program earlier this year specifically aimed at incentivizing foreign-born caregivers."

"This could put our industry under increased strain, that foreign-born workers might just decide the sector is not for them broadly," concluded Howell. "And clearly, we have so much data that says that they are the lifeblood."