What Happens If Donald Trump Refuses To Certify Iran Nuclear Deal

President Donald Trump is likely to wound the Iran nuclear deal by refusing to certify it, but he may stop short of unraveling the agreement by pushing Congress to reimpose sanctions on Tehran, Politico reported Tuesday.

Congress requires POTUS to certify Iranian compliance with the deal every 90 days, and the next deadline is Oct. 15. If Trump decides to decertify the nuclear deal, Congress would have 60 days to decide whether to reimpose sanctions lifted by the 2015 deal — formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA) — in return for limits on Iran’s nuclear program.

However, in order to save the deal, administration officials are working toward making sure Congress lawmakers do not to reimpose nuclear sanctions on Iran. The state department is also reportedly talking to Congress to amend its legislation so that Trump does not have to certify the deal every 90 days, the Guardian reported.

In lieu of Congress not reimposing sanctions on Iran, Trump’s advisors plan to apply new pressure on Tehran, as part of a strategy developed in an Iran policy review led by National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster, Politico reported.

This approach allows Trump to demonstrate contempt for the agreement, which he has labeled “catastrophic” and “the worst deal ever,” without triggering an international uproar that several advisors warn would ensue from a total withdrawal.

The European powers — the United Kingdom, France, and Germany — also the signatories to the deal, had seen what was coming and have prepared to marshall European political resources for a potential rearguard action lobbying in Congress, according to the Guardian report. “The E3 [the three European states] are keen not to make it all about the president’s decision,” one diplomat said after a meeting of political directors from the foreign ministries of UK, France, and Germany last week.

“Even if the decision is not to certify, we will want to see on what terms he passes it to Congress.”

Earlier at the UN general assembly in mid-September, Trump rebuffed pleas by U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May and France President Emmanuel Macron to keep the deal alive.

On Sept. 20, the foreign ministers of all signatory nations attended a meeting of the Joint Commission charged with implementing it. Despite being reminded that the JCPOA had been enshrined in a UN security council resolution, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the plan was not a formal ratified treaty, so it should be open to renegotiation.

Now, with the issue likely to be palmed off to Congress, the question is how congressional Republicans will respond to the White House’s pleas.

With almost all Republicans and Democrats likely to vote by party line, top Republican leaders would be wary of getting bogged down in a grueling debate on an executive decision. “Congress doesn’t want to get in the middle of this and own it,” said former state department official now at the Centre for a New American Security, Ilan Goldenberg, the Guardian report said.

However, some experts said even if the nuclear deal is not killed this time around, its enemies will make sure it does sp in the future. “The Iran hawks will try to have multiple bites of the cherry and will keep pushing for more votes,” said Reza Marashi, the research director of the National Iranian American Council. “If the Europeans wanted to try to save the JCPOA,” he added, “they now have very little time”.