Why Reelection will be an Uphill Task for Obama in 2012

President Barack Obama's chances of winning a second term are bleak, with only 37 percent of the voters believing that he will scrape through in 2012, the latest ABC News/Washington Post survey has found.

The poll said the president runs the risk that such expectations can eventually become reality at the voting booths, which contributed to the GOP's success in the 2010 midterm elections.

The report also said similar survey results have proved right in the past. In September 2003, the public by 50-35 percent expected George Bush to be reelected, as he was; and in March 2007, 61 percent correctly expected the eventual Democratic nominee to beat the eventual GOP nominee. The poll was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates.

American Enterprise Institute has compiled various survey findings throwing light into the president's prospects in 2012. According to AEI's observations, the voters' satisfaction with the way things are going in the country is lower now than it was for previous presidents at this time.

The proportion saying the country is headed in the right direction is 20 percent, which is about where it was at this point in Bill Clinton's presidency. In 1979, during Jimmy Carter's presidency, it was even lower.

It also points out that President Obama's job approval rating is lower than previous presidents at this point except Jimmy Carter, in recent times. Obama's job approval rating was 40 percent, while that of George Bush, the latest president to win only one term, was higher at 56 percent in 1991. George W Bush had an approval rating of 54 percent at this time 2003.

On the question of personal financial situations, President Obama's position looks as precarious as George Herbert Walker Bush's did in 1991, AEI said. While 44 percent said their personal finance was worse off in 1991, as many as 45 percent said so in 2011.

Obama's approval rating among Democrats and blacks remains solid, but it has dropped among Hispanics, AEI observes, citing various surveys. Independents swung toward the Democrats in 2006 and 2008 and to the Republicans in 2010. Today, 36 percent among this important group approve of the job he is doing, down from 54 percent in 2009.

Among white people, whose representation in recent presidential elections was 75 percent, Obama's approval rating has dropped to about 32 percent.
While 70 percent said in 2009 that Obama had strong qualities of leadership, only 42 percent believed so in 2011. Likewise, though 55 percent said he was a good commander-in-chief in 2009, only 41 percent said so this year.

As many as 65 percent said Obama was easy-going and likeable, while 49 percent considered him honest and straightforward. However, 77 and 63 percent, respectively, had said the same in 2009.