Will Americans Soon Pay $5 A Gallon For Gas Due To The War In Ukraine? Analysts Say It Is Likely

Americans can expect to see gas prices creep even higher in the coming days as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine enters its second week. Some analysts warn that Americans can expect to pay up to $5 per gallon, and soon.

Earlier this week, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, cautioned that average gas prices in some U.S. cities will top $5 a gallon. De Haan did not specify exactly when this would be the case, but he suggested it could be "in the next couple of weeks."

The current national average price of gas is $3.61 a gallon, up 26 cents from February and about $1 more than a year ago. California, the nation’s most populous state, is already on the cusp of the $5 per gallon mark, costing $4,94 on average, according to the American Automobile Association.

Even before Russia invaded Ukraine, analysts were warning about the repercussions of any military offensive on global energy prices. Russia is the world’s third-largest oil producer and the second-largest for gas, so any sanctions against this sector or Russian retaliation by withholding gas and oil shipments leaves markets in a state of uncertainty.

Prior to the war, analysts warned that the price of oil could rise to anywhere from $120 to $150 per barrel if there was a disruption in supplies. After the first Russian missiles fell on Ukraine, the price of oil leaped over $100. As of Thursday morning, the futures for ICE Brent crude oil stand at $112.63 a barrel.

President Joe Biden warned for weeks that any war or subsequent sanctions would entail rising costs at the pumps for U.S. consumers. Earlier this week, the president, along with the heads of 30 other countries, coordinated a release of 60 million barrels of oil to stabilize the global supply.

Yet this move is unlikely to do more than temporarily stave off further price hikes. In January, Russia was producing approximately 11 million barrels of oil per day, according to the International Energy Agency. Without a disruption to its own production capacity in the short term, this coordinated effort only released the equivalent of what Russia produces in a week.