Will Trump Win The Election? Prediction From Top Expert May Provide The Best Insight

One political analyst has stood out among the rest when it comes to predicting presidential elections: American University history professor Allan J. Lichtman.

Lichtman, 73, has been credited with getting every presidential election correct since 1984, though his first prognostication wasn't much of an achievement considering President Ronald Reagan carried 49 states. However, his prediction that Donald Trump would defeat Hillary Clinton was considered a bold assertion as most election handicappers didn't forsee the upset.

Lichtman uses a model for predicting presidential elections outlined in his 1996 book, "The Keys to the White House." The book touches on 13 keys to victory.

So who does Lichtman expect to win in 2020?

In an op-ed video for the New York Times in August, Lichtman said Joe Biden would win. As Nov. 3 approaches, he hasn't budged from his pick.

"I absolutely stand by my prediction," Lichtman told CNBC on Sept. 24.

He cited his 13 keys for believing Trump will be the first incumbent to lose since 1992. In the Times video, Lichtman noted seven of the 13 boxes are checked.

“The keys, they’re like a rock. They do not easily change because they have the fundamentals, not the day-to-day of the campaign,” Lichtman said. “Trump isn’t going to suddenly morph into a different person.”

Oddsmakers and polls agree with Lichtman. According to betting site OddsChecker, Biden is favored at -225 odds, compared to Trump's +210 odds. Betfair on Wednesday listed Biden at 74% probability to win while Trump's probability is 33%. Polling aggregator Real Clear Politics shows Biden leading in most general election polls as well as several key swing states.

Lichtman's recent current track record is strong after correctly predicting that Trump would be impeached.

"Don't just take my word for it," he said in the Times video. "There are forces at play outside the keys — voter suppression, Russian meddling."