Crypto Bettors Boost India's Odds In Polymarket Bet On Trump Trade Deal

The global trade war is still on as the world watches closely which countries will bend to U.S. President Donald Trump's demands before the 90-day pause ends — and on market prediction platform Polymarket, India is now leading the pack.

Cryptocurrency bettors on the platform have raised India's odds toward securing a trade deal with the White House by as much as 74%, the latest data showed.

Japan and Israel follow behind closely with 73% chances on the event contract that has now reached a volume of $1.5 million.

Why Does India Have Higher Chances?

For some crypto users on the platform, one reason for India potentially getting a trade deal before the 90-day pause ends in July, is because of U.S. Vice President JD Vance's state visit in India earlier this month.

Vance has said there was "good progress" on talks over a potential trade deal after his meeting with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The Republican leader acknowledged that Modi isn't a weak bargainer. "It's one of the reasons why we respect him," Vance said when he visited the city of Jaipur.

Other Polymarket users pointed to reports that the Trump administration is "close" to securing agreements with Japan and India although the specifics may not be as deep as the White House initially wanted.

Other Countries With Reasonable Odds

While India is in the lead on the event contract, several countries are also catching the attention of crypto bettors.

Vietnam sits comfortably on the third spot, with chances at 68%, given how Vietnam started trade talks with the U.S. last week, raising hopes that the Asian nation may be closer to an agreement.

South Korea is in fourth place, with odds at 56%. Like Vietnam, the country is working faster in securing a deal, at least based on last week's update by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said diplomats from both sides had a "very successful" meeting on trade.

"We may be moving faster than I thought, and we will be talking technical terms as early as next week," he said after a Thursday discussion.

In last place, at least based on the event contract, is France. With only 17% odds as of early Monday, it appears crypto bettors don't see the European nation getting a deal before July.

Such low odds may be due to comments made by French economy minister Eric Lombard last week, wherein he said "we're still a long way from an agreement." He did say that talks were still ongoing and France remains hopeful for a trade deal.

Earlier last week, Japan had the highest chances on the same event contract. It remains to be seen how the figures will change as nations scramble to appease markets roiled by Trump's trade war.