NFL Picks 2016: 5 Best Bets Against The Spread For Week 15

With just three games left in the 2016 NFL regular season, a few teams find themselves in virtual “must-win” situations entering Week 15. In both conferences, four teams are within one game of the final wild-card spot.

The Denver Broncos have a one-game lead over the Tennessee Titans in the race for the AFC’s No. 6 seed, and both contenders are underdogs of more than a field goal, according to the latest Las Vegas betting odds. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens are fighting for first place in the AFC North, but the team that fails to win the division can still sneak in the playoffs with a wild-card berth. Both teams are favored in Week 15.

There’s no such thing as a “sure thing” when it comes to gambling, but here are the five best bets for Week 15 of the 2016 NFL season:

Buffalo Bills (-10)

All of the questions surrounding the future of head coach Rex Ryan and starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor will be put aside for at least one day when the Bills host the Cleveland Browns. The Browns barely put up a fight each week, and that shouldn’t change in Buffalo.

Not only is Cleveland headed for the second-ever 0-16 season, but they’ve stopped coming close to winning any of their recent games. The Browns have lost by at least 13 points in five straight games, and they’ve failed to cover the spread in seven straight weeks, depending on the sportsbook. Buffalo’s offense has struggled in recent weeks, but that shouldn’t be an issue against Cleveland’s 31st ranked scoring defense. The Bills top-ranked rushing attack should dominate a defense that allows 146.2 yards on the ground per game.

Denver Broncos (+3.5)

The New England Patriots usually have trouble winning in Denver, and they could be upset in Sunday’s trip out west. Having beaten the Patriots three times at Sports Authority Field since 2014, the Broncos have a real chance to extend that streak.

With the league’s best pass defense, the Broncos should prevent Tom Brady from having a second straight 400-yard performance, especially since Rob Gronkowski is out with a season-ending injury. The tight end was the only one of Brady’s weapons that had a big game last time these two teams met, and Brady hasn’t performed nearly as well in recent seasons when his No. 1 weapon hasn’t played. Trevor Siemian is playing better than both Brock Osweiler and Peyton Manning were when they defeated New England last season, and he could throw for a few scores against a mediocre pass defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

After a slow start to the season that was derailed by an injury to Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers look like they might be able to challenge the Patriots for a trip to the Super Bowl. Having won four straight games by at least seven points, Pittsburgh should continue their dominance against the Cincinnati Bengals.

With a 5-7-1 record, the Bengals have no chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2010. Cincinnati has beat up on bad teams, but they’ve struggled against the better part of their schedule. The Bengals have just one win in eight games against winning teams, including an eight-point loss to the Steelers in September. Le’Veon Bell is averaging 155 yards rushing during Pittsburgh’s four-game winning streak, and he’ll have another big day against the NFL’s 25th ranked run defense.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)

After losing by seven points to the NFL’s best team, the Ravens should bounce back with a victory against the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia has been awful since the first month of the season ended, and there’s little reason to believe they’ll turn things around when facing a potential playoff team.

Even after allowing Tom Brady to have one of the best performances of his career, Baltimore still ranks fourth in total defense. Since winning their first three games of the year, the Eagles are averaging just 19.8 points per contest, which would tie them for 24th in the NFL. With maybe the league’s worst receiving corps, Carson Wentz has struggled mightily in the second half of the season, and the Eagles can't win if he doesn’t play well, considering the Ravens are first against the run.

Tennessee Titans (+5)

The Titans won’t have an easy time winning on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs, but the two teams should play a very close game. Kansas City has struggled to cover the spread as a significant favorite recently, and Sunday’s contest will likely be decided by one score.

Of Kansas City’s 10 wins, only three have come by seven or more points. Tennessee has the personnel to play with the Chiefs, bringing the NFL’s No. 3 rushing attack to Arrowhead Stadium. Twenty-six teams have given up fewer rushing yards than Kansas City, and they could struggle against DeMarco Murray. Marcus Mariota has quietly become a top-10 NFL quarterback, and his ability to limit turnovers also gives the Titans a chance to upset the Chiefs.