'Overwatch' Loot Box Odds And 'Hearthstone' Card Pack Rarity Released In China

Blizzard has just revealed rarity rates for packs in Hearthstone and Overwatch loot boxes in China. A new law, which went into effect on May 1, forces all game companies operating in China to disclose the win percentages of luck-based game drops, a feature fans have wanted for years.

There’s no evidence the odds listed are the same in the United States or anywhere else in the world, but from my personal experience they seem pretty spot-on. Reddit detectives have translated the posts, making it possible for the rest of us to benefit from Blizzard’s blessed information.

Overwatch Loot Box Drop Rates

18.9 percent chance to get an Epic item - Every 5.5 Loot Boxes

7.4 percent chance to get a Legendary item - Every 13.5 Loot Boxes

This list by no means exact and you should take all of this with a grain of salt, but these rates do seem plausible. I’ve opened hundreds of Loot Boxes and only have a handful of Legendaries to show for it, mostly because the luck gods love to give me duplicates. During the last event, Uprising, I pulled three Legendary skins and eight Epic items out of fifty Loot Boxes, which is spot-on for these percentages.

Hearthstone Card Pack Rarity Odds

Rare - At least one rare or better in each pack
Epic - Average of one every five packs
Legendary- Average of one every 20 packs

Odds for golden cards were not disclosed.

Just like Overwatch’s Loot Boxes, Hearthstone card pack rarity odds remained a mystery to anyone outside of Blizzard. These descriptions might be a bit vague, but at least they are giving us something to ponder. I opened 100 Journey To Un’Goro packs when the set was first released and received three Legendaries, which all just happened to be Quests. According to these odds I should have received an extra Marsh Queen, but it seems luck wasn’t on my side.

Czhihong translated the original post on reddit and believes the wording in the article implies a “pity timer,” or that after a set amount of packs you’re promised a Legendary. Blizzard hasn’t been very open about the feature’s existence, though fans do believe it exists. The last line of the Chinese article says: "actual odds of getting better quality cards will increase in tandem as players open more packs," which pretty much confirms the “pity timer” exists.

Again, it’s important to remember none of these odds have been confirmed outside of China. For all we know, these numbers could be totally skewed for a different market with different buying habits. I do believe that these odds might not be exact, but they seem close enough to make me feel comfortable giving Blizzard more money. When buying anything random, there’s always a voice in my brain telling me not to waste my money, to spend that extra fifty on something necessary, or at least tangible.

Do you think these odds are legit? Tell us in the comments.