The outcome of the US election -- Trump (L) or Harris -- is unlikely to revitalise ties with Turkey
Donald Trump's odds of becoming the 47th president of the U.S. have reached a new all-time high on Polymarket. AFP

KEY POINTS

  • Polymarket bettors have Kamala's odds down to 21.3%, while Trump's chances soared above 78%
  • Some crypto users believe Polymarket data isn't accurate and is merely 'reactionary'
  • Polls before election day showed that the presidential race is much tighter

Polymarket was one of the top political trends on X Tuesday night as Donald Trump's chances of winning the presidential election skyrocketed to a new all-time high.

Data from the decentralized market prediction platform revealed that as of late Tuesday, cryptocurrency bettors drove the GOP frontrunner's odds of winning to 78.6% and are still climbing. Just a day ago, the business mogul's chances were at 56.1%.

X trends Nov 4 2024 night
Polymarket was a top trend on X Tuesday night. X Trends/Screenshot

Harris's Odds Plummet

While Vice President Kamala Harris is still in the race, Polymarket bettors have her chances only at 21.3%, significantly down from Monday, when her odds jumped to 44%.

Despite her chances down on Polymarket's presidential winner event contract, she remains the favorite in the Popular Vote Winner event contract, leading Trump by 20%.

In the critical swing state battle, Harris is behind on all battleground states, with her chances of winning Arizona at an all-time low of 8% while her Republican foe's odds are at 92%.

How Accurate is Polymarket?

Many crypto users worldwide have been referring to Polymarket data in recent months, but prominent trader EllioTrades asked the crucial question on the platform's accuracy.

One user said the popular betting platform "doesn't reflect the true market," while another pointed out that Polymarket is "not at all accurate" and is only "reactionary."

Most crypto users on X said it's impossible to know just how accurate Polymarket figures are, while others said the platform's data doesn't matter at all. "As long as their application goes mainstream and attracts more people to use web3 services, we all win," one user said.

Latest Polls Sing a Different Tune

Meanwhile, the numbers are very different in polls before election day, suggesting that the race may be much closer than what betting platform data reflects.

For instance, an AtlasIntel poll from Nov. 3-4 showed that Trump is ahead of Harris by only 1%. In another Pennsylvania-centric poll dated Nov. 1-4, Trump is even behind his Democratic foe by 2%.

Other Key Races on Polymarket

Aside from the presidential election event contract, there are also major races on Polymarket that have reached multi-million-dollar bets.

It remains to be seen how the elections will turn out and whether cryptobettors will have their money's worth when the official vote counting process ends.

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