Balloons fall after former US president Donald Trump accepted his party's nomination at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
Balloons fall after former US president Donald Trump accepted his party's nomination at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. AFP

KEY POINTS

  • Over $31 million has been poured into the event contract predicting the 2024 elections' balance of power
  • Polymarket bettors believe there is a 23% chance for Harris government with a GOP Senate and Democratic House
  • They believe there is a 15% chance for a Trump admin with a Republican Senate and Dem House
  • Trump now has a 24% lead over Harris in the presidential winner event contract

Cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket have raised the Republican Party's chances of commanding a sweep during the upcoming elections, suggesting that more crypto users may be leaning toward GOP candidates.

In the event contract asking crypto users how they see the balance of power after the Nov. 5 elections, bettors have a Republican sweep at 44% and believe Democrats have a 14% chance of sweeping the elections.

Balance of Power 2024 Election Polymarket late Oct 17 2024
Polymarket bettors predict that Republicans have a much higher chance of sweeping the elections over Democrats. Polymarket

Differences in Views for a Divided Government

In terms of a divided government, the views of crypto bettors are difficult to conclude some three weeks before the elections.

Crypto users on Polymarket believe there is a 23% chance of Vice President Kamala Harris taking the White House with a Republican-held Senate, and a Democratic-led House. They believe there are 15% odds for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to win in the elections with a Republican-led Senate and a Democratic majority in the House of Representatives.

The event contract further revealed that in the $31.7 million bet, crypto bettors see only a 6% chance for a Kamala government with both Congressional bodies being ruled by Republicans.

The odds for a Trump government with a Democratic-led Senate and a GOP majority House are even lower at 1%.

Trump Hits New Record-High in Polymarket Lead

The latest figures on Polymarket's event contract predicting the balance of power when the general elections end come amid Trump's numbers also rising in the event contract projecting who will win the presidential race.

On Thursday, the business mogul's chances spiked to 62.1% against Kamala's 38.0%, following the vice president's interview with Fox News, wherein a feisty Harris blasted her Republican foe.

Recent Poll Shows a Narrowly Different Scenario

While Polymarket bettors see Republicans having a higher chance of sweeping the elections, the numbers are different in recent polling.

As of Oct. 16, one generic ballot poll showed that 46.1% of American voters would like Republicans to lead Congress, while 47.2% want Democrats to take Congress.

Crypto Statistics in the US

Research shows that nearly 50 million American adults own cryptocurrencies, and 56% of American adults have said they own or previously held crypto.

Furthermore, research reveals that 81% of U.S. adults have heard of crypto, marking a significant jump from 69% in 2020. Also, 27% of Black American crypto users started holding their assets between 2022 and 2023.

Republican and Democratic Views of Crypto

There is a huge discrepancy in terms of the number of GOP and Democratic politicians who've expressed support for the crypto sector.

Data from Stand With Crypto, a digital assets advocacy group, revealed that while there has been a gradual increase in support from Democratic candidates, the largest support so far, at least in vocal and public statements made about the industry, comes from Republicans.

Trump has repeatedly expressed vocal support for the industry, even attending the Bitcoin 2024 conference. Harris, on the other hand, recently revealed her opportunity agenda for Black Americans that noticeably stated she will support a crypto regulatory framework.

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