Trump Takes Nevada, Now Leads Harris In All Swing States: Polymarket US Elections Forecast

Former President Donald Trump has claimed Nevada, the remaining swing state of six battleground states being monitored by Polymarket, marking the first time since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee and that the Republican frontrunner led Harris in all key states.

Data from Polymarket showed that Trump took Nevada late on Wednesday (51% to 49%) and as of early Thursday, he is still ahead of Harris on all swing states tracked by the decentralized market prediction platform.

Why the Shift is Crucial for Trump

Among three swing states that Kamala held on to since becoming the Democratic Party's presidential candidate, Nevada was the last one standing.

Notably, the state has gone Democrat in the past four presidential elections, but the narrowing figures suggest things are starting to flip. Trump's lead in Nevada, at least on Polymarket, only cements the notion that the Democratic-leaning state is probably jumping ship. It may also be worth noting that in the 1960s, Nevada was a Republican-leaning state.

Nevada has a fairly large population of undocumented immigrants, and the shift toward Trump may be surprising for some, considering the business magnate's stance on immigration.

For some political experts, the key to winning Nevada is to identify the independent voting community and woo the said group.

Why Nevada May Decide the 2024 Election

While Pennsylvania is called the king of all swing states this year, Nevada is being painted by some analysts as the most "unpredictable" battleground state that could ultimately decide the upcoming elections.

This year's candidates are also faced with multiple challenges in getting Nevadans on their side, including but not limited to:

• Nontraditional working hours – Specifically in Las Vegas, there is a 24-hour workforce that will make it difficult to reach shift workers. Pollsters typically call on voters between 5 p.m. and 9 p.m., which are usual working hours for shift workers.
• Multilingual state – Some 23% of Nevada's eligible voters don't speak English as their first language, as per Bloomberg data. Polls that ask questions in complete English will ultimately miss the said population. Nevada has a larger Spanish-speaking population.
• Nonpartisan voters on the rise – There are more nonpartisan voters in the state than voters leaning on the two parties. The independents may turn out to be the ones who decide which party clinches the 2024 elections.

The exact number of people using cryptocurrencies in Nevada is unclear. On the other hand, research from last year showed that the state showed the most interest in crypto in 2023. Nevadans scored high when searching for terms, websites, prices, news, apps, and advice related to crypto in the said year.

Polymarket allows users to buy and sell crypto to bet on future events. So far, the event contract on the presidential election winner for 2024 is now a $1.9 billion bet.