Trump Flips Harris, Retakes Pennsylvania With 10-Point Lead: Polymarket US Presidential Election Forecast

Ex-President Donald Trump snatched the lead from Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket Sunday following his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, that featured tech billionaire Elon Musk.

The numbers were tight in the past few weeks, with some days seeing a tie, while most days saw bets on the decentralized market prediction platform in favor of the Democratic presidential nominee.

Things changed over the weekend following the Butler rally, where an electrified Musk took the stage to tell Republican supporters that the electoral landscape has become a "must-win situation" for Trump.

Polymarket Bettors Flip the Script

Trump has been seeing a steady but slow climb on the platform since he wrapped up his rally in Butler – in the same location where he survived a would-be assassination in July.

As of early Monday, Trump is ahead of Kamala at 50.8% to 48.4%. With less than a month left before the elections, it appears the GOP frontrunner is utilizing his connections arsenal to get cryptocurrency voters on his side.

However, the bigger story is how Trump retook battleground state Pennsylvania after losing it to Harris last month.

Trump Trumps in Pennsylvania

Polymarket data early Monday showed that Trump is leading Harris by a significant 10 percentage-point gap (55% to 45%).

Harris took the key swing state last month after securing a 5-point lead over Trump on Polymarket's event contract for the 2024 presidential election. At the time, she was ahead of Trump by four points in Pennsylvania.

The Republican presidential nominee has also widened his lead in Georgia (64% to 36%) compared to last month's numbers when he led Harris at 58% to 42%. The numbers haven't changed in Arizona, with Trump still sitting on a comfortable 36-point lead.

Harris is still ahead of her Republican foe in Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with the same figures at 53% to 47%. She is also still the favored winner among crypto bettors for the Popular Vote Winner contract (74% to 26%).

Musk's Speech Helped Drive Trump's Numbers Up?

While it is unclear what motivated crypto holders using Polymarket to drive up the former president's numbers and end Kamala's reign in the event contract, Musk may have had a hand in the movement after he appeared to promote a PolitiFi token during his speech at Trump's rally.

"As you can see I am not just MAGA – I am Dark MAGA," he said early on in his speech. The team behind the political token said they spoke with the Tesla CEO ahead of the Butler rally.

Musk has yet to clarify whether his statement was a direct reference to the memecoin, but it sure pumped the PolitiFi token space as many Trump-themed coins surged over the weekend.

Why Trump Has to Take Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania, considered by a growing number of experts as the key state among all swing states, has largely become a purple state in the last two decades. The Keystone State handed Trump's win in 2016, but before that, the same state made sure to deliver the victory for the Democratic Party in two consecutive presidential elections (2008 and 2012 for Barack Obama).

Incumbent President Joe Biden narrowly took Pennsylvania in 2020, making the state a critical and quite unpredictable battleground for the GOP and Democratic parties this year.