Trump Reclaims Lead On Polymarket After Second Reported Assassination Attempt

Former President Donald Trump reclaimed the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket on Sunday night, several hours after reports emerged of a second assassination attempt on the Republican presidential candidate.

Data from Polymarket, which enables users to buy and sell cryptocurrencies to bet on future events, shows that Trump is closely leading Harris at 50% to 49%. The figures have been very close in recent weeks, with either of the two candidates taking the lead or tying on some days.

Gunshots Fired Within Trump Vicinity

A person was seen with a gun near Trump's West Palm Beach golf course Sunday afternoon, the FBI said. "President Trump is safe following gunshots in his vicinity," the Trump campaign said.

The suspect was identified as Ryan Wesley Routh. The U.S. Secret Service confirmed one or more of its agents "opened fire on a gunman" located near the boundary of Trump's golf course, and that an "AK-47 style rifle" with a scope was recovered along with a GoPro video camera.

The suspect allegedly fled the scene but was later arrested. Following the incident, Trump said in a website fundraising message: "Fear not! I am safe and well, and no one was hurt. Thank God!"

Two months earlier, the former president was speaking at a rally in Pennsylvania when shots were fired, resulting in the death of firefighter Corey Comperatore, who was trying to protect his family amid the gunfire. A bullet brushed through Trump, injuring his right ear. At the time, the suspect, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, was gunned down by Secret Service agents.

Harris Flips Nevada

Despite Trump's lead, the numbers are changing in battleground states, specifically in Nevada. Earlier this month, the business magnate led his Democratic foe by four percentage points in Nevada, a swing state.

By Sunday night, Harris tied Trump at 50%, leaving the GOP frontrunner with three of six swing states being tracked by Polymarket. Trump took Pennsylvania late in August, giving him a comfortable four-state lead over the Democratic presidential nominee.

In Arizona, the numbers haven't changed, with Trump still leading Harris at 60% to 40%. Georgia is still for Trump, with Harris shedding one percentage point – from 58% to 42% earlier this month to 59% for Trump and 41% for Kamala Sunday night.

Harris is on the verge of tying Trump once more in Pennsylvania. Trump widened his lead at 53% to 47% in the Keystone State earlier last week, but on Sunday night, Polymarket crypto bettors pushed Kamala's chances up, bringing the race closer at 51% for Trump to 49% for Harris.

Harris leads Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin, with a comfortable two-digit lead in each state. For a larger number of crypto traders on the platform, Harris will win the popular vote.

Harris Also Leads Trump Outside Polymarket

In polls outside the popular crypto betting platform, Harris is also leading her Republican rival, seemingly aligning the current views of non-crypto voters and voters who hold digital assets.

A recent Data for Progress survey, which was conducted after the presidential debate last week, showed that 50% of likely voters said they will vote for Harris if the elections were held the next day, compared to 46% for Trump.