Investor Mark Cuban Says Polymarket Results Don't Really Indicate Anything – Is He Right?

Billionaire Mark Cuban, who is a supporter of Vice President Kamala Harris, said Monday that event contract results on decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket don't really indicate anything about the nearing U.S. elections.

Cuban, a minority owner of the NBA team Dallas Mavericks, spoke with CNBC's Squawk Box Monday, revealing that he actually is an "indirect" investor on Polymarket.

Cuban Has a Very Good Point

Cuban was asked about his thoughts on betting and prediction platforms, especially as the hottest topics on the said platforms in recent months are mostly on politics and the U.S. elections.

The "Shark Tank" investor revealed that he has indirectly invested on Polymarket through a cryptocurrency fund he is involved in, adding that he knows the terms and conditions for betting on the popular prediction site.

"I know that you're not supposed to be an American and bet on Polymarket, and so it's not really an indication of anything," he said, adding, "From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don't think it's an indication of anything."

Cuban's statement makes a significant point that many may have forgotten – the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) enforcement action against Polymarket in 2022 that ended in a $1.4 million fine and an order to cease offering its services in the country without first registering with the regulator.

So technically, U.S. citizens aren't supposed to be betting on the platform. In fact, Bloomberg reported Tuesday that Polymarket continues to crack down on U.S.-based users amid a surge in crypto whales betting on former president Donald Trump.

The Wall Street Journal previously reported that there is a "mystery" wave of $30 million in bets for Trump on Polymarket, with odds for a Trump win on Nov. 5 surging over the past two weeks. The platform has reportedly engaged with independent experts to look into transactions.

Miguel Morel, the CEO of leading blockchain security and analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, told the Journal that there are four main accounts betting big on Trump's chances of winning on Polymarket. He further noted that the four accounts were all funded by deposits from U.S.-based cryptocurrency exchange Kraken.

How It's Going on Polymarket

While Cuban believes Polymarket contracts don't indicate anything for the upcoming elections, the millions keep pouring in as crypto users continue to bet on various future events, and in recent weeks, mostly on politics-related event contracts.

In the presidential election winner contract, where Trump is leading Harris at 63.1% to 37% as of late Tuesday, more than $2.2 billion is in.

Other political event contracts have also hauled in millions, including the contract for the popular vote winner this year (over $454 million), the 2024 election balance of power contract ($42 million), the presidency and popular vote party winner ($40 million), and many more.