Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are sending celebrity surrogates to stump for them on the presidential campaign trail
Will Arizona actually vote Trump or will Harris flip the state as Biden did in 2020? AFP

KEY POINTS

  • Trump won Arizona in 2016, but Biden flipped the swing state in 2020
  • Trump is currently leading Harris by 41% in Arizona on Polymarket
  • Brookings Institution believes Arizona's election results may depend on Latinos and Mormons

Decentralized market prediction platform Polymarket is brimming with activity as the elections draw near, and among the most watched event contracts are the swing states, particularly Pennsylvania, the king of battleground states, and Arizona, the state with the largest gap.

Pennsylvania is known often dubbed as this year's key swing state, but on Polymarket, Arizona is rising above the five other swing states tracked by the platform as Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has a 41% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

How Arizona Voted in the Last 2 Elections

In the $5.8 million bet, Polymarket bettors have Trump's odds of winning Arizona at 71%, while they see Kamala's chances at 30%.

Polymarket Arizona early Oct 21 2024
Donald Trump has a significantly wide lead over Kamala Harris on the Arizona event contract. Polymarket

This year's numbers on Polymarket are particularly crucial, considering how Arizona voters delivered the win for Democratic candidates in top races in previous elections but lower-level tickets were given to Republicans.

In the hotly contested 2020 election, President Joe Biden won Arizona from Trump. At least for Polymarket cryptocurrency users, it appears Trump is gaining back whatever he lost in Arizona in 2020.

What Could Sway the Results in Arizona This Year?

American think tank Brookings Institution notes that this year, two demographic groups may sway the state's presidential election results: Latino voters and members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Notably, one in four voters in the state are Latino, and Mormons make up five percent of the state's total population. In the past, Latinos tended to support Democrats, while Mormons typically vote for GOP candidates.

However, things may be shifting as some Arizona-based Latinos are said to possibly be leaning red, while some Mormons have expressed offense over Trump's character.

Crypto by the Numbers in Arizona

Data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC) shows that two groups have spent nearly $6 million to get Arizona voters to lean toward pro-crypto candidates, even as many in the state are believed to still be uneducated about crypto.

Recent research from a16z Crypto also revealed that in the last four years, Arizona is one of two swing states that "experienced moderate drops in interest" in cryptocurrency.

While crypto may not be as significant in Arizona compared to other states that see much activity and engagement from crypto users, it appears that Polymarket bettors believe Arizona will lean toward Trump this year.

Trump was in Arizona last week, where he focused on immigration, given the state's location as a border state where early ballots have already started hitting mailboxes. Harris also went to Arizona earlier this month, where she discussed various topics such as abortion rights and healthcare.

It remains to be seen whether Arizona will indeed vote Trump this year as many Polymarket users believe so, but based on the crypto statistics in Arizona, Harris may still have a chance to flip the script.

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